FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center|Week 1 fantasy football risers, fallers: Revenge game for Matthew Stafford

It's time for our weekly fantasy football stock watch,FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center where we identify which players are sizzling and which ones are fizzling on the fantasy football Value Meter.

Week 1 is always the most difficult to project because most NFL teams are reluctant to show anything but the most basic concepts in preseason. Heck, some of the best players in the league haven't even seen any game action yet.

But this is our opportunity to point fantasy football managers in the right direction so they can stay ahead of developing trends and make smart decisions on the road to a fantasy league title.

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Rising fantasy football values

QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: Stafford certainly wasn’t drafted as a QB1. His back is always an issue, but he could get off to a hot start. First, he is facing his former team in Detroit, where the playoffs ended for the Rams last season. And, he has a healthy Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams. If Puka Nacua is active after nursing a knee injury in preseason, Stafford could exceed Week 1 expectations by a mile.

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WR Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills: The Bills parted ways with starters Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs in the offseason, opening the door for a new group of receivers. Coleman was drafted out of Michigan State, and WR Khalil Shakir figures to be his biggest competition. Coleman could emerge as a WR1 right off the bat if he gains QB Josh Allen’s trust early.

TE Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins: Smith had career highs with 50 receptions and 582 yards in his lone season in Atlanta. He returns to Miami, where he starred in college for FIU. Smith could get off to a hot start in a passing game which is light years ahead of the one he had in Atlanta.

WR Darnell Mooney, Atlanta Falcons: Mooney signed a lucrative three-year deal with the Falcons, and it appears he’ll start opposite Drake London. The team figures to be much more explosive through the air with QB Kirk Cousins joining the fray. Mooney had a 1,000-yard season in 2021 in Chicago, and a repeat of those numbers wouldn’t be surprising now that he has an NFL-caliber QB again.

TE Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears: Kmet had a lot of hype heading into 2023, and he was a fantasy fizzler for most of the season. Now, he has some skilled players around him, and an exciting rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams, who might actually be able to get Kmet the ball routinely.

Falling fantasy football values

QB Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets: It’s Week 1, and Rodgers will be playing on a Monday night. He opened on Monday last season too, and his Jets debut lasted four snaps before a ruptured Achilles ended his season. Rodgers is now healthy, but also 40 years old, and facing a nasty 49ers defense which had more interceptions than touchdowns allowed in 2023.

QB JustinHerbert, Los Angeles Chargers: There are a lot of changes for Herbert, and none are good. New coach John Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman have a history of a run-first approach. Herbert also lost dependable WR Keenan Allen via trade, and he is nursing a foot injury. It could be a slow start for the signal-caller.

WR Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings: Addison has a lot working against him. He suffered an ankle injury in the preseason, and he could be limited in Week 1. In addition, Addison will have a healthy Justin Jefferson limiting his targets again. When he does get a look, it’ll be from QB Sam Darnold, a major downgrade from Kirk Cousins.

RB Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns: Ford will be tasked with RB1 duties in Cleveland to start, as Nick Chubb isn’t quite ready to return from his knee injury. Ford might stall against a Dallas Cowboys rush defense which allowed 4.2 yards per carry and only 14 rushing scores in 2023.

RB Devin Singletary, New York Giants: Singletary bet on himself last offseason, taking a one-year deal in Houston, where he had a career year. While he parlayed that into a lucrative new contract, landing in New York isn’t ideal. He had a stud QB in Houston to take the pressure off the run game. With the Giants, let’s just say that isn’t the case.

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