Surpassing Quant Think Tank Center|Value meal wars heat up as more fast food spots, restaurants offer discounted menu items

The Surpassing Quant Think Tank Centerfast food value meal wars are far from over.

McDonald's $5 Meal Deal, Wendy's breakfast bundles and Taco Bell's Luxe Cravings Box kicked off the cost-cutting competition off about two months ago.

As the cost of eating out continues to increase – rising 4.1% in July, compared to July 2023, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics – more fast-food chains have added value menus to woo customers leery of rising prices.

Hardee's recently announced its $5.99 Original Bag deal, which includes two entrées, plus sides. Carl's Jr., which like Hardee's is owned by CKE Restaurants Holdings, is launching its “More Bang, Less Buck” value menu – 10 items all under $4.

Restaurant chains have gotten into the game, too. Chili's expanded its 3 for Me menu with a half-pound Big Smasher burger or Crispy Chicken sandwich, plus bottomless chips and salsa and bottomless non-alcoholic drink, starting at $10.99.

Red Robin, starting Monday, Aug. 19, has new specials including Monster Monday deals, $10 Gourmet Cheeseburger Tuesdays, and Wednesday's 50% off a Kids Meal deal.

Coming Monday, Aug. 26: Olive Garden's Never Ending Pasta Bowl ($13.99, includes endless soup or salad and breadsticks; offer available until Nov. 17), with the same price tag it had when last offered two years ago, the company said. Members of the chain's eClub loyalty program get a head start on the Never Ending Pasta Bowl and can order starting Monday, Aug. 19.

The goods on groceries:Supermarket store brands are more popular than ever. Do they taste better?

Family value meals: Are they working?

Most of the value offers have been labeled as limited-time deals, but McDonald's has kept its $5 Meal Deal on the menu at most of its restaurants, McDonald's USA President Joseph Erlinger said three weeks ago. The company is working to extend the deal even longer, he said, because its availability has helped shift "sentiment towards the brand around value and affordability."

While McDonald's cites its success with the $5 Meal Deal, some industry observers wonder whether the offers are actually achieving their goal.

McDonald's, Burger King, Starbucks, Wendy's, and Taco Bell all saw sale declines of more than 30% from July 2023 to July 2024, according to data from financial app Brigit, which analyzed millions of transactions from its users who have connected their bank accounts.

Users of the app have been spending less on fast food, entertainment, and shopping, Brigit’s co-founder and CEO Zuben Mathews told USA TODAY. "Restaurants offering 'meal deals' isn’t enough to drive up sales and if restaurants want to see their numbers go back up, menu prices need to come down long-term rather than offering a few deals on select menu items," Mathews said. "For a lot of the big chains … we’ve seen a dip in overall user spending in July after many of these places rolled out meal deals in June.”

McDonald's and the competition could use artificial intelligence to cook up value meals that appeal to more consumers, said Jim Swift, CEO of Buxton, a retail consumer analytics company. It used AI to create several different McDonald’s "key customer personas" and found a spectrum of responses to the $5 Meal Deal's appeal, he said.

“As the Value Wars continue, it’s clear that success will depend not just on offering deals but on understanding who those deals are really for," Swift told USA TODAY. "In the battle for customer loyalty, a one-size-fits-all strategy is not enough. Instead, the key to victory lies in personalization – crafting offers and experiences that speak directly to the diverse lives and values of … customers."

Here's a breakdown of some of the best deals available now.

McDonald's $5 Meal Deal

Price: $5

When it started: June 25

What can you get: A McChicken or McDouble sandwich with a four-piece McNuggets, fries and drink.

Burger King's $5 Your Way Meal

Price: $5

When it started: June 13

What can you get: A Whopper Jr., Chicken Jr. or bacon cheeseburger; with value fries, four chicken nuggets and a value soft drink. 

Wendy’s $3 breakfast deal

Price: $3

What can you get: Pick any two of the following items for $3 total: sausage and cheese English muffin; egg and cheese English muffin; sausage biscuit; egg and cheese biscuit, small seasoned potatoes and a medium hot coffee.

Also available: Wendy's Biggie Bag (starts at $4 for Junior Cheeseburger, 4-piece order of chicken nuggets, fries and a drink), has been around for years, but has been tried by nearly a third of U.S. adults, according to opinion research firm CivicScience. Include Wendy's free kids meal. Order a premium combo in the Wendy’s app and get a free Wendy’s Kids’ Meal.

Jack in the Box $4 munchies menu

Price: $4 or less

When it started: June 3

What can you get: The following items are each $4 or less: Jr. Jumbo Jack, Tiny Tacos, chicken nuggets, French toast sticks, Jr. Chicken Sandwich, Jr. Cheeseburger, sourdough grilled cheese, Two Tacos, Jr. Cheeseburger, Jr. Bacon Cheeseburger, value drink, value curly fries, value french fries.

Taco Bell's Luxe Cravings Box

Price: $7

When it started: June 27

What can you get: A Chalupa Supreme, Beefy 5-Layer Burrito, Double Stacked Taco, chips and nacho cheese sauce, and a medium drink.

Starbucks' Pairings Menu

Price: $5-$7

When it started: June 11

What can you get: Any tall hot or iced coffee or tea and a butter croissant for $5. Get any tall hot or iced coffee or tea and add a breakfast sandwich for $6 or $7 depending on the sandwich.

(Sausage, cheddar and egg sandwich; bacon, gouda & egg sandwich; turkey bacon, cheddar and egg white sandwich; the chicken, maple butter and egg sandwich for $6. Double smoked bacon or Impossible breakfast sandwich for $7).

Carl's Jr. More Bang, Less Buck value menu

Price: $4 or less

When it started: Aug. 14

What can you get: The value menu includes 10 items under $4 including four new single burgers including the Guacamole Jr. and Bacon Cheese Jr., Spicy Chicken Sandwich, 6-piece Chicken Stars, fries and chocolate cake. You can also make any burger into a double for only 99 cents.

Taco John's BOGO for a buck deal

Price: Starts at $3.29

When it started: Aug. 19

What can you get: Buy either a Meat & Potato Burrito, Super Burrito, Taco Bravo or Churro and get another for $1. There's also a $5 Meal Steal with a beef taco, bean burrito, drink and a junior order of Potato Olés. The chain launched its ValuEST Menu in 2021; it currently has seven items including several burritos and a Cheesy Beef and Potato taco (price range, $2-$4).

Hardee's $5.99 Original Bag deal

Price: $6

When it started: Aug. 1

What can you get: Choice of two entrées – hot ham and cheese sandwich, double cheeseburger or chicken tender wraps and in some markets, chili dog and roast beef sandwich. Comes with small fry and drink, with the option to upgrade to medium or large size for an additional fee. 

Jimmy John's $10 Total Package Meal

Price: $5

When it started: Aug. 5

What can you get: The combo includes an 8-inch sandwich, bag of Jimmy Chips, choice of dessert from cookies and brownies, and a regular-sized drink.

KFC $5 deals on Taste of KFC menu

Price: $5

When it started: Aug. 12

What can you get: Choose from a Famous Bowl with KFC Chicken Nuggets, an order of eight chicken nuggets, or a two-piece order of chicken (drum & thigh).

White Castle $7.99 sack of cheese sliders deal

Price: $8

When it started: July 30

What can you get: A sack of 10 Cheese Sliders at more than 30% off the regular price (offer is for $8.99 in Arizona, New York, New Jersey); you can mix and match your choice of cheese (American, jalapeño and smoked cheddar). 

Contributing: Gabe Hauari.

Follow Mike Snider on X and Threads: @mikesnider & mikegsnider.

What's everyone talking about? Sign up for our trending newsletter to get the latest news of the day